My Top 25
1 Ohio St. 3
2 Florida St. 1
3 Oregon 4
4 Alabama 2
5 Boise St. 6
6 TCU 5
7 UCLA 11
8 Mich. St. 13
9 Marshall 12
10 Ga. Tech 14
11 Missouri 16
12 Baylor 7
13 Georgia 17
14 Wisconsin 15
15 Ole Miss 8
16 Miss. St. 9
17 Arizona 10
18 Clemson 21
19 Arizona St. 23
20 USC Ė
21 Auburn 18
22 Colo. St. 20
23 Kansas St. 19
24 N. Illinois 24
25 Memphis Ė
Full Rankings 1-128
Out of top 25: (22) Nebraska, (25) Louisville
Earlier top-25 blogs:
I guess Iíll start with some good news. I like how the top four stayed in place. If after theAlabama game anyone still believed Ohio St. didnít belong in the top four, Iím sure they do now. Other than that, pretty much everyone agreed with the other three teams.
Why does the fact that teams won these games mean that suddenly some of them arenít in the top four? It doesnít. If we made 5-8 play each other and then the winners of those games play each other, that would leave three teams in that group with one more loss than they had before the bowls as well.
I am also pleased with my rankings before the bowls. Eleven of my top 17 (including Oregon) won their bowl games. All of the top 19 either won their bowl game or lost to another top-19 team. Colorado St. andNebraska were the only top-25 teams to lose bowl games to other teams.
Obviously, some people will criticize whereTCU is, but only one team they played all year won a bowl game, and the Horned Frogs donít get a lot of points fromOklahoma St.ís win over Washington. The margin of victory over Ole Miss doesnít help in my ratings, but like most fans, I would have liked to have seen TCU play one of the top four. (I still donít want another round of playoffs though, at least not without a major overhaul.)
I know Boise St. lost to Ole Miss, but losing to Baylor doesnít hurt that much less. Boise St. also played an extra game. The Broncos were one of four 10-win teams in the Mountain West (all in the same division), while only two teams in the Big XII won 10 or more.
This might be boring, but it might also be a way of explaining my rankings, so bear with me. On 11/23, TCU led Boise St. by about 0.12 (which was the approximate distance from Ohio St. to Oregon before the bowls). Boise St. won three games between 11/23 and the bowls (Wyoming, Utah St., andFresno St.) while TCU only won two (Texas and Iowa St.). This cut TCUís lead to 0.006.
All things being equal, the TCU lead should have increased to 0.017 because Ole Miss counts for more points than Arizona does. So the 1-6 performance in bowl games by TCU opponents cost the Horned Frogs 0.021 by comparison since they ended up 0.004 behind the Broncos. Only three of Boise St.ís, but of the 13 games they played, 10 were against teams that went to bowl games (they played Fresno St. twice, Ole Miss, Colorado St., ULL, Air Force, Nevada, BYU, San Diego St., and Utah St.).
For a non-mathematical argument, a lot of people thought I had Boise St. way too high and they shouldnít have been ahead of Arizona. I think they corrected that perception.
This is the fifth time since 2008 (when I started my current system) that Boise St. has finished in the top 6. By comparison, this is only Alabamaís fourth time in that time frame. Florida, Ohio St., and Oregon have finished in that group three times apiece. Not apropos of anything, but every time Ohio St. has been in that group, so has Oregon.
I would have liked to have seen Marshall play a P5 team, but they did about as well against then-11-2 Northern Illinois asArkansas had back in September.
I do think Georgia Tech would have likely beaten them, but remember the point of my formula is so that teams with few losses end up near the top. Georgia Tech obviously had a much better schedule, but you have to have a much better schedule to account for two extra losses.
Iím sure most of you remember when LSUhad two losses and made the BCS Championship ahead of one-loss Kansas. That was a huge difference in schedule, but if LSU had three losses or Kansas had no losses, LSU would not have gone ahead of Kansas. I first started working on my current formula after the 2007 season, so thatís probably something I considered when I decided how much winning percentage counts and how much strength of schedule counts. I also think LSU would have beaten Kansas even if the Jayhawks had gone undefeated in 2007, but that doesnít mean LSU would have deserved to play in the game ahead of them.
Anyway, Marshall is in the CUSA, which went 4-1 in the bowls. Compare that to the 4-7 mark of the ACC. Also, bad losses hurt more in my formula than good wins help. The one team that beat Marshall (Western Kentucky) won its bowl game, but all three teams that beat Georgia Tech lost theirs.
The top two teams of the SEC East (Missouri and Georgia) got into the top 15, finally passing up Ole Miss and Mississippi St., but they had too far to go to make it into the top 10. I think 19 of the top 21 being in P5 conferences is about right. I donít mind giving some credit to the better teams of the other conferences at the bottom of the top 25.
USC made a pretty decent jump forward after they beat Nebraska and several teams in the group immediately ahead of them lost.
This is the completion of my 20th year ranking teams (although it was purely subjective before 2004), and this is the very first time I am ranking Memphis.Memphis is the 101st team I have ranked.
Note on conferences
This is slightly different analysis from my ďconference reportĒ series. In this blog, Iím commenting upon the rankings of the various teams rather than strictly looking at games between conferences. I do a summary of this with every ranking (except for the one after the Army-Navy game). You can see my chart here.
The SEC finishes with only one team in the top 10, but six in the top 25, nine in the top 40, and twelve in the top 50 (the chart linked to above does not give any credit for the top 50, just the top 40). Even #13 Kentucky finished 68th, just four spots behind Virginia Tech (who, as I think most people know, beat Ohio St.). Although like most of the country, I was a little surprised by WHICH SEC teams won, I think the above shows how tough it was to go undefeated if 13/14 teams in the conference were good enough to beat who turned out to be the best team in the country.
The SEC has 14 teams, and only 8 of them got to play Vanderbilt. The SEC might not have the best top teams (as was thought for much of the season), but if you think any other conference schedule was tougher, youíre kidding yourself.
Kenneth Massey lists about 90 top-to-bottom computer rankings of teams on his†comparison site. Every one of them has the SEC as the top conference (at least based on average ranking of the teams). I know people want to call me a homer, but until Iím not part of the overwhelming consensus (even if one or two come out that disagree, thatís still true), I wonít take that allegation seriously.
The only rankings he lists on there that put the SEC second are the two (subjective) polls, but only the top 25 of each one is considered. Since the SEC has six teams between #26 and #50 in my ratings compared to only two in that range for the Pac-12, thatís ignoring a lot of the SECís relative strength toward the middle and below the middle of the conference.
HAPPY BELATED NEW YEAR TO ALL!!!† Irish Shu is back with a review of the recently-completed Fighting Irish football seasonÖyeah, Iím late.† SHADDUP!† Anyway, the second half of the season sucked a dick, so Iím gonna keep it short and sweet.† Hereís how they did in their last 7 games after winning their first 6.
FLORIDA STATE: The biggest game of the regular season against the then #2-ranked Seminoles.†
The Irish outplayed FSU in all phases of the game and won the statistical battle, but lost on the number that counted the most 31-27 as the Irish D could not contain Jameis Winstonís passing in the 2nd half after they had done it so well in the first half.† The painful part of the game was on NDís second-to-last offensive play that saw Corey Robinson score the go-ahead touchdown with 13 seconds left only to have it called-back on a pass interference/illegal block playÖunfortunately what the refs missed was that one of the FSU defenders pulled his helmet off in frustration at the play, which should have resulted in unsportsmanlike conduct and a fresh set of downs for the Irish (one more play from a better spot, at least)Öbut Iím not bitter, of course!† FSU would go on to finish an undefeated regular season only to be flattened in the Rose Bowl playoff semifinal by Oregon.† Sadly, this Irish loss started a tailspinÖ
NAVY:† In what would turn out to be the last regular season game the Irish would win this year, QB Everett Golson had a career day as he passed for 315 yards and became the first ND signal caller to throw for 3 touchdowns and also run for 3 more as the Irish survived the game Midshipmen 49-39.†
The Middies did tear the Irish D for 336 rushing yards, but sadly saw their eventual MVP In middle linebacker Joe Schmidt suffer a dislocated and broken leg and be lost for the seasonÖone of many injuries the defense would suffer from here.† Navy would go on to finish 8-5 with a Poinsettia Bowl win over San Diego State.
ARIZONA STATE: The game was a battle of #9-ranked ASU and #10-ranked ND and it wasnít even close as Everett Golson did a face plant and turned the ball over 5 times including 2 pick-6ís in a 55-31 loss that saw the Irish storm back in the second half and close the gap to 3 points in spite of Golsonís mistakes, only to have a pass bounce off Corey Robinsons hands and into the arms of an ASU defender for the second pick 6 and, yeah, they shat the bed again from there.†
It wasnít helpful that Golson was sacked 7 times, either.† The Sun Devils were brought back down to earth the following week in a loss to Oregon State, but would go on to finish a great season at 10-3 with a Sun Bowl win over Duke.
NORTHWESTERN: FUCK IT!† I didnít even bother watching this one after I found out about the 43-40 OT loss.† I went ahead and just deleted it from my DVR Because I knew it was only gonna piss me off if I watched.† I donít know what happened and I donít want to know.† No excuse for losing that game.† Ever.† Northwestern finished below .500 and didnít go bowling.† Enough said.
LOUISVILLE: †The Irish were game but could not hold-off Cardinal QB Reggie Bonnafon and failed to make a short field goal in crunch time for the 2nd week in a row as they lost 31-28 to a good ACC team which went on to finish 9-4 and lose to Georgia in the Belk Bowl.†
In spite of Irish runner Tarean Folstonís effort Ė 18 carries for 134 yards and a touchdown, the Irish D continued to fall apart as several of their strong players left this game with injuries.† Sheldon Day, Jarron Jones and Cody Riggs among them.† Also in this game, The Irish gave up 30 or more points for the sixth straight time, which is the first time that's happened in 126 seasons of football. The 242 points Notre Dame gave up in that span is also the most ever by the team in six gamesÖOUCH!
USC:† Given the problems the Irish were already having with defensive injuries and trouble keeping possession of the football on offense, this game at the LA coliseum could not have come at a worse timeÖI think a final score of 49-14 in favor of the Trojans made that all-the-more obvious.†
As Coach Brian Kelly said, it could have been worse Ė SC could have piled-on even more points had they wanted to.† As it was, the Irish D committed another historical first by allowing Trojan QB Cody Kessler to complete 5 touchdown passes in the first half (6 for the game) and Everett Golson was benched for Malik Zaire after an un-inspired first half.† Zaire did show some promise with a 170-yard passing day with no interceptions and also ran for 18 yards and a score, but that was the only bright spot.
Music City Bowl vs. LSU:† The Irish FINALLY managed to pull-out a win in Nashville over the 23-ranked Bayou Bengals in a game that helped salvage a disappointing season.†
The very-well-executed game plan featured Malik Zaire in his first career start running straight at the LSU D from a 2-tight-end set and controlling both the clock and the football (NO turnovers!† YES!) en route to the 31-28 Irish win.† The capper was Irish kicker Kyle Brindza knocking-in the game-winning field goal as time expired to end his career with the Irish after a frustrating season for him that had more to do with the Irish holders failing to get the ball down on the holds than it did with his kicking technique.† While the Irish D and special teams did yield 3 big plays including huge scoring runs by LSUís Leonard Fournette, they held-down the Tiger offense when they needed to and helped get the win.† Golson, while he didnít start, did chip-in with a 90-yard passing performance which included a couple key completions on the final drive.† Zaire, however, was named the gameís MVP as he both ran and passed for scores.
So to wrap it up, a season that seemed to be heading the right way with a 6 and 0 start fell apart with turnovers and injuries to a predominately-young defense and should have ended better than the 8 and 5 record it finished withÖbut such is life.† The good news is that the personnel losses to graduation and players opting for the draft should be minimal, although a solid DE and captain in Sheldon Day is among those pondering the draft, and there is also some rumor buzz that Golson may transfer to another school for his last year since he is graduating Ė I donít think that would necessarily be a terrible loss given the turnovers he kept committingÖwhen he was good and avoided the mistakes, he was DAMN good though.† He was in the running for the Heisman for the first few games before disaster struck.† I wish him well with whatever he decides but if he leaves, I feel good about Zaire and the rest of the QB bench coming back.
As for how my other teams fared:
MONTANA GRIZZLIES:† Had a good year and sent their retiring head coach in Mick Delaney off in style as they went 9-5 and made it to the second round of the FCS playoffs where they lost to Big Sky Conference rival Eastern Washington on the God-awful red turf field.† Seriously, I canít watch a game on that shit for more than 5 minutes without getting a head ache!† Oh, well, a good season nonetheless.
NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS:† Not much to say here.† One too-many 9-win seasons and blowout losses to Wisconsin cost Coach Bo Pelini his job. While a 9- or 10-win season is great for most teams, itís less than what is expected in Husker Land.† His temper and demeanor throughout his career there didnít help him, either.† Weíll see if new coach Mike Riley from Oregon State can do any better.
COLORADO STATE RAMS:† Had their best season in years!† 10 winsÖbut a bit of a sad ending on 2 fronts: 1. They lost their head coach in Montana native Jim McElwain who left just prior to their bowl game to take the same position with the Florida Gators (canít say I blame him for that, though) and then 2. they were blown-out by Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl.† Great year up until that, though.
CUSTER COUNTY COWBOYS: †My hometown high school team did me proud once again!† They had a good season and made the playoffs as they do most years, and then won an overtime thriller over Havre in the first round before losing a close one at Whitefish in the second round.† They lose a couple great athletes to graduation but have a lot coming back next year, too.† Weíll see how it goes.
Fellow You Gabbers: It is always a pleasure!!!† Have an awesome 2015!† Take care, Irish Shu
Walter Sobchak: Were you listening to The Dudeís story?
Donny: I was bowling.
Walter Sobchak: So you have no frame of reference here, Donny. Youíre like a child who wanders into the middle of a movie and wants to knowÖ
-The Big Lebowski (1998)
The characters Donny and Walter
Standing alone, this blog probably wonít be very interesting, but I want to provide a frame of reference for later blogs I have planned.
As I had stressed at the end of the regular season, itís helpful to look at where a team is in a conference when talking about inter-conference games. For instance, itís not anything to brag about when a top-4 team of one conference barely beats a bottom-two team of another conference at home.
Iím going to start with what I think are fair conference standings going into the bowls. Since there are so many ties and since so many conferences have uneven conference schedules, you canít just follow the official conference standings. This wonít be exactly what Iíll go by when I rank the conferences overall; but, since I consider the bowls to be just another game (in actuality, if youíre not in the top 4, theyíre LESS meaningful than most regular games), it wonít be far off.
Even though the SEC West (for instance) went only 2-5 in bowl games, playing six bowl teams in the division should earn some consideration. Texas A&M and Arkansas (winners of the two bowl games) were not opponents that provided teams in that division a breather like the bottom two teams of just about any other division would have. To not be able to take a break at all in divisional play makes it harder to get to 7-1, 6-2, 5-3, etc.
I decided not to alter that by more than two games though. For instance if one team is 5-3 and another is 7-1 and the two teams did not play one another, Iím going to keep the 7-1 team ahead.
I also factored in non-conference play at times if two teams were close, especially where there was no meaningful difference in conference schedule.
Iíll list the conferences in the order I had them going in. Iím grouping Notre Dame with the ACC since it is part of the ACC bowl group.
There were a couple of teams such as Western Kentucky and South Alabama who were arguably lower, but since a bowl picked them instead of another team, I used that to break the tie rather than making it more complicated. Thatís also how Penn St. went ahead of Michigan and Northwestern (neither of which was eligible for bowls).
However, I included two non-bowl teams in the Sun Belt listings because they were clearly better in the conference than bowl teams. (They were considered transitional teams and would only have been eligible had other teams in the conference been ineligible for contractual bowl slots.)
SEC (12/14 teams in bowls)
2. Mississippi St.
4. Ole Miss
9. Texas A&M
12. South Carolina
Pac-12 (8/12 teams in bowls)
4. Arizona St.
Big Ten (10/14 teams in bowls)
1. Ohio St.
2. Michigan St.
10. Penn St.
ACC (11/14 + Notre Dame)
1. Florida St.
2. Georgia Tech
5 1/2. Notre Dame
6. North Carolina
8. Boston College
9. North Carolina St.
10. U. Miami
11. Virginia Tech
Big XII (7/10 teams in bowls)
3. Kansas St.
5. West Virginia
7. Oklahoma St.
(Other) Independents (2/3 teams in bowls)
Mountain West (7/12 teams in bowls)
1. Boise St.
2. Colorado St.
3. Utah St.
4. Air Force
5. Fresno St.
6. San Diego St.
Conference USA (5/13 teams in bowls)
2. Louisiana Tech
5. Western Kentucky
American (5/11 teams in bowls)
2. Central Florida
4. East Carolina
Sun Belt (3/11 teams in bowls)
1. Georgia Southern (NOT in a bowl)
3. Appalachian St. (NOT in a bowl)
4. Arkansas St.
5. South Alabama
MAC (5/13 teams in bowls)
1. Northern Illinois
3. Western Michigan
4. Central Michigan
5. Bowling Green
This is the link to my full blog, The Bayou Blogger.† I can also be found on Facebook and Twitter (@TheBayouBlogger).
I wrote this about 12 hours ago.† The committee pretty much did what I thought they should do, with the exception of choosing Georgia Tech over UCLA. I guess they went with the team that finished strong over the better "body of work".† After Oregon took the Rose and Arizona the Fiesta, there wasn't really a good bowl to put UCLA in anyway.† I also would have preferred Alabama play FSU in the Sugar Bowl and the traditional Rose Bowl match-up, but I guess they don't consider that.
I know this is early in the day for most of you, but Iím not the one who decided to make the selection show so early for west coasters like me. Iíll just have to find out the final verdict after I get up and have breakfast.
Iíll just do my regular top 25 blog later in the week, but for reference here are my ratingsresults. I use the numbers there below.
(Teams in my Top 7 apart from Boise St.; wins are limited to those over the top 60.)
Florida St. (3-0 vs. top 25, 5-0 vs. top 50):
Beat numbers 14, 21, 25, 41, 46, 55, 60
Alabama (3-1 vs. top 25, 8-1 vs. top 50):
Beat numbers 9, 16, 18, 26, 33, 40, 45, 47, 52
Lost to #8
Oregon (3-1 vs. top 25, 6-1 vs. top 50):
Beat numbers 10, 11, 13, 36, 39, 48
Lost to #10
Ohio St. (2-0 vs. top 25, 5-0 vs. top 50):
Beat numbers 13, 15, 28, 30, 43, 54
Lost to #74
TCU (1-1 vs. top 25, 4-1 vs. top 50):
Beat numbers 19, 29, 30, 45, 57, 60
Lost to #7
Baylor (2-0 vs. top 25, 3-1 vs. top 50):
Beat numbers 5, 19, 29, 57, 60
Lost to #45
There should be no serious doubt about Florida St., Alabama, and Oregon, so Iíll skip to talking about the fourth semifinal team.
Baylorís win wasnít really in doubt for the much of the second half, but I donít think it was anything like the kind of exclamation point Ohio St. had. I had Ohio St. in the top 4 to begin with, so I am still convinced Baylor does not belong. Virginia Tech is a worse team to lose to than WVU, but my feeling is the two additional wins over the top 50 make up for this.
I respect the opinion that TCU belongs ahead of Ohio St., although obviously I donít agree with the conclusion. I think Ohio St. just showed emphatically they can play like a top 4 team. Admittedly, they showed all those weeks ago they can also lose to a mediocre team at home by two touchdowns, but at some point, the other 12 games taken as a whole should be more important. One top-25 win vs. 2 and 5 top-50 wins vs. 4 make up for that. TCU played the best of any of these teams in their loss, but actually that might have been their best game. I just havenít seen them look like a top team often enough, particularly in light of their difficulties against West Virginia and Kansas in the month of November.
Transitioning out of the semifinal discussion, I donít think Marshall and Boise St. are getting the respect that previous ďgroup of fiveĒ teams with similar records have gotten in the past. Hawaii in 2007, for instance, was #11 after starting 11-0. Marshall, which has actually had a better schedule this season, was #19 after starting 11-0. I do think Marshall and Boise St. may each be a couple of spots too high in my ratings though.
I mentioned briefly last week why I had Boise St. ahead of Arizona, and now itís similarly problematic to have Boise St. ahead of Baylor. There is a higher depth to Boise St.ís wins, but ultimately beating top-20 teams should be valued more highly. I want to try to find a way where beating #5 and #19 counts for more points than beating #20, #49, and #69. Those arenít Boise St.ís three best wins (they beat two others in the top 60), but they just happened to combine for slightly more points than Baylorís two best wins.
One way I thought of was adding some kind of additional credit for beating teams that end up with positive ratings (which is usually approximately the top 40). I wonít alter the formula at this point this season though. I will tinker with it after the final results of this year to see how it turns out. I will also look to see how it would alter previous ratings.
Something else I want to note is Boise St. actually has more FBS wins than Baylor because they played an extra game and did not play an FCS opponent. So where usually a team with two losses has fewer wins than one with a single loss, the two-loss team in question has more wins.
In an average playing week, Baylor did accumulate more points than Boise St. did in an average week.
One reason I say Marshall may be a spot or two too high is that I think Michigan St.should be in a major bowl. Their only losses are to teams I believe should be in the top 4.Wisconsin was technically the Big Ten runner-up, but they lost an additional game, and they lost to LSU and Northwestern. LSU isnít a bad loss, but Northwestern is pretty bad. They donít even qualify for a bowl game. I mention those together because theyíre in the same conference.
I also think UCLA should be included in the top 6 bowls, while Georgia Tech should be excluded. The two teams finished with the same number of losses, and there were understandable losses by both and fairly weak losses by both. UCLAís non-conference slate of Virginia, Memphis, and Texas, combined with the strength of the Pac-12 South relative to the ACC Coastal, should put them ahead.
Florida St. was actually two possessions ahead of Georgia Tech going into the last couple of minutes, which is a gigantic lead for the Seminoles, so the final score being two points doesnít sway me. Also, I give them credit for the one strong out-of-conference win (albeit an extremely lucky one) against Georgia, but the others were Wofford, Tulane, andGeorgia Southern.
I havenít exactly made the case why UCLA should go ahead of Wisconsin or Michigan St. should go ahead of Georgia Tech, but hopefully you can fill in the blanks there.
The only other thing in the top 25 worth commenting on is a team that hadnít been there since my (subjective) preseason rankingÖ.
We can also add Northern Illinois to the list of ďgroup of fiveĒ teams that may be a spot or two too high. After Arkansasís games against LSU and Ole Miss made that blowout loss more understandable, that only leaves one other loss for the Huskies against 11 wins. Like Boise St., Northern Illinois goes up an extra spot for playing an extra game. If I averaged by playing week, they would have stayed behind Louisville.
In addition to my blog linked to above, I also have a page on Facebook and am on twitter @TheBayouBlogger.
My current top 4
My Top 25
1 ( 2 ) Florida St. 1
2 ( 1 ) Alabama 2
3 ( 5 ) Ohio St. 3
4 ( 3 ) Oregon 4
5 ( 4 ) TCU 8
6 ( 22 ) Boise St. 12
7 ( 7 ) Arizona 10
8 ( 11 ) Ole Miss 14
9 ( 8 ) Miss. St. 5
10 ( 12 ) Ga. Tech 15
11 ( 15 ) UCLA 6
12 ( 9 ) Mich. St. 17
13 ( 13 ) Wisconsin 18
14 ( 6 ) Baylor 13
15 ( 14 ) Missouri 20
16 ( 30 ) Marshall 7
17 ( 10 ) Kansas St. 19
18 ( 16 ) Georgia 9
19 ( 19 ) Auburn 11
20 ( 31 ) Colo. St. 16
21 ( 20 ) Clemson 23
22 ( 24 ) Nebraska 24
23 ( 18 ) Arizona St. 21
24 ( 17 ) Oklahoma 22
25 ( 21 ) Louisville Ė
(USC and LSU are the two Mock BCS top 25 teams who are not in my top 25.)
Full Rankings 1-128
Out of top 25: (25) Minnesota
There are a total of 39* teams that got some level of points in the Mock BCS standings linked to above. (I list 40 teams since Texas A&M was in the top 25 of one of the computer rankings, but they got no points since the highest rating is dropped)
Earlier top-25 blogs:
I didnít do a post-game blog about LSU/A&M, but I updated the Rivalry Series entry, and I will write a bit about the Tigers in my second blog this week. I also plan to write about relative conference strength and lower bowl possibilities. I think the new committee rankings will be relevant to that discussion.
What Iíll discuss below is the current state of my rankings and how I think that SHOULD translate into what the committee does with the major bowls at the end. I canít speculate with any accuracy what they will do, especially being that I donít know how the rankings for this week will look.
Because Florida St. has been accumulating a reasonable amount of points whileAlabama has recently had a bye and played Western Carolina, the Seminoles are still on top, although I would agree with probably most people in the conclusion that Alabama looks like the better team at the moment.
Georgia has also thrown a wrench into things by beating Auburn, losing to Georgia Tech, and failing to win the East. If Alabama were playing a two-loss Georgia team next week and Florida St. were playing a three-loss team, Alabama would have a good chance to move back into #1, but unless the Yellowjackets beat Florida St., I donít see that happening now.
By the way, Iíve never experienced such a disappointing day of college football in my life. I watched about 10 games that went down the final couple of minutes, and every last one of them went the way I didnít want them to. Georgia choking was just the beginning of a long day. Also, I donít know why on Earth Auburn thought they could win with field goals.
Alabama should have at least three losses, but then how would they torture me? One thing they did was allow LSU to move into first place in the SEC in total defense, so I guess we can say we got first place in something.
Despite the SEC Eastís troubles with the ACC (although letís not forget Georgia beatClemson earlier this year), I think itís justified to have three SEC WEST teams in the top 10 and all seven in the top 40. By the way, the Mock BCS agrees with the latter assessment. Texas A&M got no points, but they were ranked in one of the formerly BCS computers, so I think that makes them #40. It merely has three SEC West teams in the top 11 instead of the top 10 though.
Anyway, there are two more slots to fill out in the semifinals, so Iíll now talk about that.
I have no hesitation in supporting Oregon if they beat Arizona. They will have vindicated their one loss of the year. Even though they play in the weaker Pac-12 division, they still beat UCLA, who tied for second in the Pac-12 South. Of course, Michigan St.counts as a decent win as well. So thatís two of the top 3 teams in the Pac-12 South. (Technically, USC tied with ASU and UCLA in the South, but theyíre clearly #4 in my view.)
That last spot is going to be tricky. I do have Ohio St. there right now (actually ahead of Oregon at the moment), and I canít imagine that if the Buckeyes beat Wisconsin, that either the formula or my mind will change. However, I do understand the argument that maybe losing to Virginia Tech at home could be a disqualifying factor.
As I discussed last week, I firmly believe the best alternative to Ohio St. in that instance isTCU, whose only blemish is a 3-point loss to Baylor about 6 weeks ago.
West Virginia is better than Virginia Tech, but they donít belong anywhere near the top 25. The Mountaineers beat Baylor by a couple of touchdowns.
Even if Oregon loses, I still donít see Baylor being #4. The committee might pick them ahead of Arizona in that instance, but I donít think I would.
That might not seem to make sense being that I have Boise St. ahead of Arizona right now, but the Broncos have the better schedule at the moment. I know thatís hard to believe, but Boise St.ís opponents have a winning record overall, and Arizonaís opponents have a losing record overall. The Mountain West simply is not leaps and bounds behind the power conferences, and Boise played a very competitive schedule out of conference (while Arizona didnít).
However, Fresno St. isnít going to help the Broncos very much. So with a win, Arizona should easily pass them up as well as TCU and Oregon (whom they would have to beat).
Using my formulaís current rankings, these are the potential resumes of relevant teams for the last spot or two (two if Oregon, Florida St., or Alabama lose):
Team 1: beat #6, 17, 24, 56; lost to #46
Team 2: beat #17, 24, 29, 46, 56; lost to #14
Team 3: beat #12, 13, 29, 32, 44, 45, 55; lost to #76
Team 4: beat #4, 4, 23, 36, 50, 53; lost to #11, 27
Iím going to assume Alabama would be out of the running with a loss despite whatever strength of resume they might have. It might be possible for a team to be #1 going into championship week and hang on with a loss at some point, but this is not the year.
I do want to acknowledge that Baylor may be much better than #14. They would close the gap considerably by beating Kansas St., but obviously Oregon would be a better win than Kansas St. Also, the Bears would not pass up TCU.
So the only teams that should be in the running from my perspective are Nos. 1 to 5 and #7 Arizona.
Arizona/Boise St. has prompted me to consider a slight modification to my system though. I have preliminary ratings of teams between 0 and about 7 (which would be if the team with the best schedule went undefeated, which is nearly impossible). Boise St. has only beaten one team (Colorado St.) with a preliminary rating higher than 4.0, while Arizona has beaten three (Oregon, Arizona St., and Utah). So my idea is to have those higher-rated opponents count for a bit more than they do already.
There are a total of 12 teams that will be in CFP bowls. I donít see any of the 6 mentioned above falling out, so here are 6 other teams I think should be make up the rest of the spots:
Boise St. (top ďgroup of fiveĒ team)
This would be assuming that Georgia Tech, Wisconsin, Missouri, and Kansas St. all lost. I believe a win by any of those (although Kansas St. might be debatable) should get them in. I have the teams above so they would be eliminated from the bottom right now. If Baylor beats Kansas St., I would want them to be given a safe spot though.
Boise St. should be assured the ďgroup of fiveĒ spot with a win, but if they lose and Marshall wins, I would want them replaced with Marshall. If both lose, I guess Colorado St. would take that slot.
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