Before I get into the spec today, today is my daughter Jasmyne's 2nd Birthday...my my how time flies.
All is pretty quiet for today’s update, though I have updated some of the info on the smaller conference winners. I was deeply disappointed that Quinnipiac lost in the NEC final and the "Nippers" were denied their first NCAA bid That makes my smaller conference projection that much more scattershot. More updates will be posted tomorrow when the real moving and shaking gets done today.

Atlantic Coast
Conference Class-Power
Locks: Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland, Clemson
Playing Their Way In Florida State. Virginia Tech
Playing Their Way Out: Georgia Tech
Skinny on the ACC: If Georgia Tech can beat UNC for the third time this year, they should be safe but given the inconsistent play of both teams nothing is guaranteed. Clemson & Florida State really has to just avoid taking a loss to not have to worry about their tourney chances.
Atlantic Coast Conference Championships: Mar 11-14; Greensboro Coliseum; Greensboro, NC
Projected Bids: 6

Atlantic Ten
Conference Class-Mid Major
Lock: Temple , Xavier, Richmond
Playing their way out: Saint Louis, Dayton, Rhode Island
The A-10 Spec is: Temple, X and Richmond need only to win their opening round games in Atlantic City to feel totally safe. If Saint Louis gets to the A-10 semis they will get that 4th seed. Charlotte got beat Tuesday and is finished. The Billikens, Flyers and Rams need to get another win to improve their chances. But I only have four teams coming out of this conference so something has to give.
Atlantic 10 Conference Championship: March 12-14 Boardwalk Hall; Atlantic City, NJ
Projected Bids: 4

Big East
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Syracuse , Villanova , West Virginia , Georgetown , Pitt, Marquette , Louisville
Playing Their Way In Cincy, Notre Dame
Big East Skinny: Notre Dame is likely going having snuffed out any chances that Seton Hall once had, Syracuse might have cost itself a top seed with its fall from ahead loss to G-Town. Cincy continues to be the lop-eared mutt in the tourney, bullying Louisville on the boards to send the Cards home early, though Im still thinking that if they knock off West Virginia that they will get an invite.
Big East Championship Tournament: Mar 9-13 Madison Square Garden, New York City
Projected bids: 8

Big Ten
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Michigan State , Purdue , Wisconsin , Ohio State
Playing their way In: Illinois
Playing Their Way Out: Minnesota
The word on the Big Ten is: Ive taken some heat recently about my uncertainty about Illinois, I will give them their due IF they beat Wisconsin…but that’s not a given. Minnesota is still on the list but needs to get all the way to Sunday to get a real shot at earning a berth.
Big Ten Championships: Mar 11-14 Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Projected Bids: 4

Big 12
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Kansas , Texas , Kansas State , Texas A&M, Baylor
Playing Their Way In Oklahoma State
Hopin & Wishin’ Missouri
Skinny from the heartland: I had 7 teams coming out here, but suddenly Mizzou’s once safe status is in jeopardy after taking a nasty beating from Nebraska.
Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship: Mar 10-13 Sprint Center Kansas City, Mo
Projected Bids: 7

Colonial
Conference Class-Small
In: Old Dominion
Colonial Spec: Old Dominion will be a handful for any team that they face in the first round. This is the only team coming out of this conference
Colonial Athletic Association Champions: Old Dominion
Projected Bids: 1

Conference USA
Conference Class-Major
Lock: UTEP
Hoping and Wishin’: Marshall , UAB, Memphis
Oh Say Can You C-USA Spec: With UNI winning the MVC im shifting numbers in projections. Im liking Memphis making a hard charge down the stretch to stay on UTEP’s heels. If the Tigers get to Saturday and the finals, win or lose I see them getting a bid. UAB is pretty much in the same boat so you may see a virtual play-in game for a bid in the C-USA semifinals if UAB and Memphis.
Conference USA Championships: Mar 10-13 Bank of Oklahoma Center Tulsa, OK
Projected Bids: 2

Horizon
Conference Class-Mid Major
In: Butler
Spec on The Horizon: Butler smashed Wright State to win the Horizon title and is in line for a high seed. Why do I get the feeling that the selection committee will give Butler the shaft (again)and either put them against another mid major or give them an 8 seed to keep them away from the sweet 16?
Horizon League Champions: Butler
Projected Bids: 1

Ivy
Conference Class-Small
In: Cornell
Spec on the Ivy Vine: Cornell gets the first guaranteed invite as they clinched the Ivy Group title Friday, they will be the only team coming out of this conference
Ivy Group Champion: Cornell
Projected Bids: 1


Missouri Valley
Conference Class-Mid Major
In: Northern Iowa
Hoping & Wishin’ Wichita State
Missouri Valley Skinny: It’s a sweet repeat for the Panthers who used a steady second half surge to hold off the Shockers. The big boy conferences breathe a bit easier; this is likely a one bid league.
Missouri Valley Mens Basketball Tournament Champions: Northern Iowa
Projected Bids: 1


Mountain West
Conference Class-Major
Lock: BYU, New Mexico
Playing Their Way In UNLV, San Diego St
Spec from the Mountains: I still have 4 teams coming out of this deep conference. Though the Aztecs really need to get to the MWC semis to feel safe about their chances. As long as UNLV doesn't take a first round pratfall they will get their invite.
Conoco Mountain West Championship Mar 9-13 Thomas & Mack Center Las Vegas
Projected Bids: 4


Pacific 10
Conference Class-Power
Lock: California
Playing Their Way In Arizona State
Playing Their Way Out: Washington
Spec from the left coast: Cal is the top dog here, but the Pac-10 tourney is wide open. I can see a couple teams coming out but that’s about it here. Im projecting Cal and Arizona State netting bids, and while Washington has the chops may need to get to the semis or the finals to get a real shot.
Pacific Life Pac-10 Championships: Mar 10-13 Staples Center, Los Angeles
Projected Bids: 2



Southeastern
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Kentucky , Vanderbilt , Tennessee
Playing Their Way In Florida , Mississippi St .
Spec is Down South: Florida blew a chance to solidify their tourney chances as they fell at Kentucky. The Gators may need to get to the SEC semis to feel really good about their chances. If the Gators fall in the SEC 1st round or lose to Mississippi State in the SEC quarters, they might be on the wrong side of the cut line.
SEC Championship Mar 11-14, Sommet Center Nashville
Projected Bids: 4


Western Athletic
Conference Class- Major
Lock: Utah State
Playing Their Way Out: New Mexico State , La. Tech
Spec on the WAC: This might be a one bid, because even though the Utah State Aggies have 22 wins and are leading the WAC, their numbers are so-so at best. If the New Mexico State Aggies or La. Tech steals the bid, Utah State could be on the outs.
Western Athletic Conference Championships: Mar 11-13 Lawlor Events Center; Reno, NV
Projected Bids: 1

West Coast
Conference Class- Mid Major
In: St. Mary’s
Lock: Gonzaga
West Coast Spec: The big boy conferences are cursing St. Mary’s, their stunning rout of Gonzaga means that they won’t have to hope and wish for a bid. That also means that the Bulldogs will take an at-large bid off the table, you are out of your mind if you think that Gonzaga is getting left out of the tournament.
West Coast Conference Basketball Champions: St. Mary’s
Projected Bids: 2



There are others in the mix to be sure. The champions from the following conferences get an automatic bid (projected winners in parentheses/actual winners in bold ) : Amer. East (Vermont) , Atlantic Sun (Belmont/East Tennessee State) , Big South (Coastal Carolina/Winthrop), Big Sky (Northern Colorado/ Montana) , Big West (Pacific), MAC (Kent State) , MAAC (Siena), MEAC (Morgan State), Northeast (Quinnipiac/ Robert Morris ), Ohio Valley (Murray St.), Patriot (Lehigh), Southern (Appalachian State/ Wofford ), Southland (Sam Houston State), Sun Belt (North Texas), Summit (Oakland), and SWAC (Jackson State)

Conference Breakdown
ACC-6
A-Ten -4
Big East-8
Big Ten-4
Big XII-7
C-USA-2
Colonial-1
Horizon-1
Ivy-1
Missouri Valley-1
Mountain West-4
Pac-10-2
SEC-4
WAC-3
WCC-2
Small Conferences-17
Total-65


Keep in mind that this is just spec, these are merely projections and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets. But those never happen, right?

Next Spec Sheet March 12
 

Cheers from up here in the Cheap Seats!